Image(s): Title image by Gage Skidmore. Link to the image.

Watching the news those days isn´t quiet the best way to boost the mood. Too much bad stuff is going on the world at the moment (or the good news simply drown in the ocean of bad ones).
We have this issue with the new years day sexual assault in some Cities here in Germany, IS is a daily news and in the USA the electioneering is getting hot.
Usually I just monitor the US elections, because it s interesting to see the procedure and because there s always one “special candidate” that is more fun to watch then the others. In Germany, we would call ppl like him “Paradiesvögel”.
This years No.1 for this title is for sure Donald Trump owner of a media imperium and Multi-Millionaire. In the beginning I was just amused about his appearance and about his way to talk. In Germany would usually find people that hold speeches like him in Bars in the early mornings after way too much beer.
By now, I m not amused anymore. I m more deeply concerned about how this man walks directly to be the republican candidate for this years presidential election. Within the republican party he by far in front of all other candidates.
Bildschirmfoto 2016-01-08 um 11.32.33
(Source: RealClearPolitics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html)
And this concerns me a lot! Not by the fact that a Millionaire is running for presidency, but the way how he is doing it. While I m reading his tweets on a daily base, I ask myself over and over again “Nobody can´t be that stupid to follow somebody who rumbles through this electioneering like an elephant within a porcelain store….or?”
Well, actually I had to reverse my point of view. Yes, there are people following Mr. Trump…and it seems there are more people than I expected.
We have such people/ political parties here in Germany too that go into electioneering like Mr. Trump does. They are called AFD (Alternative für Deutschland in english “Alternative for Germany”) or even worse NPD. They use cheap phrases that everyone understands (even the dumbest), call out todays major problems with pretty simple solutions that again even the dumbest would understand. But is this really the solution to all problems, that the United States have to face those days?
Here is the official Ad that currently runs on TV in the US:

I have to say that this a very straight forward Ad, and I have so double-check if this is really an official ad and not some kind of satiric joke. But it´s real!
Basically it says:
We have problems with muslims? Alright let´s keep them (temporally) out of the US! And the ones we have already here let s surveillance system and check them one by one.
We have problems with illegal immigrants coming from the south? Alright, let´s build a wall! And the best thing: We let another country pay for it!
We have problems with ISIS? No problem, we cut the head of this terror organisation and take their oil! (I really have to think about this “and take their oil” thing…)
If a German politician would take this in his program for the next election he/she would be instantly politically dead. Not only because it would be the Germans that would simply not elect him/her, but exactly such a guy yelling such phrases is now running for POTUS.
And a lot of Americans stand up and cheer for him. I m really disturbed why, so I started to look at what is on the web about this guy. Things the web write about him, but although what people say about him or what he says himself.
I watched a lot of videos in the past weeks where Mr. Trump appears. This one is significant to me:

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” is his claim. And this is what repeats in his interviews over and over again.
I mean…honestly….this is part of his political program? This is what Mr. Trump would like to do as president? Building walls was and is never a proper way to prevent something nor solves it a problem (example given: German Wall, the wall in Israel, the Great Wall of China). The thing is, this is always a short solution for a problem….because the problem will find different ways once such a wall is established.
More interesting in regards of this is an article by the New York Times saying that more illegal immigrants are leaving the US then entering. (Read the article here: New York Times Nov 19th 2015)
Much more dangerous in my point of view is the second thing. Stop muslim people from entering the USA until he knows “what s going on”.
This is pure racism! Not even a hidden one. He clearly says: We need to find out what kind of potential thread are ALL muslim people are. What about the soldiers. Are they allowed to enter their homeland? What about German muslims? What about the sheiks coming to the US to spend thousands of dollars in cars and other luxury? Are those people get rejected as well? If yes, well…think about would you then spend your Dollars in a country that rejects you for entering it?

Impact on an economic level

Just to give you an indication what impact this might have on the US economy if muslim countries might think about not spending their money into US-goods, I encourage you to visit the website of United States Census Buero (https://www.census.gov/), but I give you some numbers for 2015, I took from that page (in Million US-Dollars):
Country                 Export             Import
Saudi-Arabia       17,944.6          20,226.8
Kuwait                    2,496.6            4,326.9
Iran                          245                    0
Iraq                           1,861                 3,708.5
If you take a look at only those numbers, and these are just 4 countries, you have a total value of exports around 23 billion US-$, money US-companies earn by selling goods to those (muslim) states. Big companies can (may be) compensate losses that might happen. But smaller companies may not be that lucky loosing such incomes.
Now think about, there are 1,283 million Muslims worldwide. If such a buying-potential moves their buying behaviour only by 20% buying less or none US products. You don t have to have a degree on economics to recognize that this will have an impact on US-economics.
Or is are there “exceptions” (some sort of “Good (rich) muslims”). In this case you have an animal farm situation (remember: all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others!”). Not the better situation either.

Cutting the head of ISIS and take their oil

Well, harsh words….big words. But I didn t hear so far, how he s gonna manage to do that? By sitting in the oval office waiting that the leader of ISIS stop by for a cup of tea? I assume this won t work. This sentence only means: War.
And meaning by war, it s not a war you win by sending the airforce. You can not win a war by air strikes. To defeat an enemy, you have to go in. Which means sending troops. Sending troops against an enemy that does not fight in open fields. This will lead into a casualties on both sides. More on the ISIS side…that s for sure, but there will be a lot of US men and women that won t come home to their beloved ones.
AND it won t solve the problem. Because ISIS is the result of a much more global problem. It s the balance and the mistreat that drives people to such radical groups. It s the and as long as you don t solve this problem, there will always be another one that stands up in the name of this sick people. So instead of try to figure out how to find a more effective, he speaks (and shows in the ad) only a military option.
And remember: ISIS was founded as a more radical part of Al-Kaida. Al-Kaida is based on the Mudschaheddin which were supported by the US during the soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
From my perspective, things that announcement is more or less just “loud barking” to get attention within a more lower educated group of people. Within the FOX interview he announced that Hillary Clinton is responsible for the massiv loss on lifes within here time as Secretary of State. How does he think “Cutting the head of ISIS” will work out without losses in civilian and military personal. He makes it too easy…way too easy. If he s going in, it will be a long fight not only a military fight, but to prevent that this terror will end, he needs to build up the countries where ISIS is strong. Because if he doesn t the terror will come back. It will come back because people that have no future will turn to those who provide them one. So this is a hugh thing he intent to do. And without international support it will be a disaster like Vietnam. And he should know that. And the people who gonna vote for him should be aware of this fact as well.
And what is this “taking their oil” thing?

Turning things Trump likes he wants them

A personal thing that makes me mad, is the way how he tries to influence the american people with things happen around the globe . Ok, most politicians do that…but he does it in such a way where you just can facepalm.
Look at one of his tweets (actually the one that really makes me mad):

Besides the fact if you read it the first time, you could think that he really thinks that Paris is in Germany, let´s take the two statements he made in this tweet:
1. Man shot inside Paris police station. Just announced that terror threat is at highest level.
Does this man look like to be INSIDE the police station?
Bildschirmfoto 2016-01-08 um 11.44.50.png
(Source: Screenshot of The Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12086901/Paris-police-shoot-dead-knife-wielding-man-live.html)
After the attacks in November 2015 in Paris the french government increases the security for police stations, to make it more difficult to enter the building. May be you heard about that in the news or so. By indicating that the shooting took place inside the police station, he says that the man passed this security barriers. But he didn t! He wasn t even able to enter the station, due to this increased security barriers.
Let s have a look on the second statement by Mr. Donald Trump:
2. Germany is a total mess-big crime.
I´m not sure on what kind of facts this statement is based. So I took the one that is available by the Bundeskriminalamt (same as the FBI here in Germany) for 2014 (2015 is not available so far) and compared it with the statistic provided by the FBI for 2014.
Crime Statistics 2014 USA Germany
 
You can check out and compare the numbers for yourself, if you don t trust this diagram. Here are the links:
FBI: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-1
Bundeskriminalamt: https://www.bka.de/nn_257310/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Publications/PoliceCrimeStatistics/2014/pks2014__englisch.html
So, if Mr. Trump says that Germany is a mess-big crime…what are the United States in this case then?
I m well aware that his statement is focused on the really bad things that happened on Dec 31st in cologne and other cities in Germany that night.
That s what his next tweet is about:

Fact is:

  • Yes, there was a very uncommon attack on females. (This is the first time I actually recognized so an attack).
  • Yes, under the suspects (and I call them suspects) are people with an actual migration background.

But fact as well is:
So far the Bundeskriminalamt (German FBI) announced that the 31 suspects that are questioned so far have the following nationality:

  • 9 from Algeria
  • 8 from Morocco
  • 4 from Syria
  • 5 from Iran
  • 1 from Irak
  • 1 from Serbia
  • 1 from the USA
  • 2 from Germany

(Source: http://www.bild.de/bildlive/2016/12-koeln-fluechtlinge-44069802.bild.html)
And, by the fact that Germany is a democratic state, everybody is innocent until guilt is proven. I m quiet sure that nobody would like to hear that due to the fact that this person from the US is questioned, everybody in Germany would say “All US men are a danger to the german women”, and even if this person is guilty…he is ONE person that doesn t stand for the majority of the people. Right?
People that break the law will be punished by the law…even if that means that these persons have to leave the country. But those are a few…and Mr. Trump generalizes by painting a picture that ALL immigrants are a danger to the local society. THIS IS WRONG THINKING! They aren t! Most of those people are just happy to get it here alive, and they are thankful for the gift of immigration. No doubt about, this will be a long road to take. And us Germans will face some rough times getting these people into our society. But managed to build up eastern Germany…we will master this challenge as well.
Billions and billions of Euros were invested to get this worked out, and people in “Western Germany” weren t happy at all to pay extra taxes to build the eastern parts up again….but they did and today we have one of the most powerful industrial countries in the world.
And yes, we have issues with people thinking immigration is a bad thing and it needs to stop…but you might not see in the news are the small things that happen on a daily business. The people that collecting clothes and other donations and to welcome those refugees. It was strong in the beginning, and it s still going on. As said, you might not see that in the news, because it becoming a daily business, but it s still there.
And after the Silvester politics reacted to this incident. They will bring up laws that refugees that abuse the right of asyl here for doing crimes, will face leaving the country, if they found guilty by a court.
So what ever Mr. Trump thinks about to know or tell you about Germany and the “mess” that we might have here. Trust me, it s not! We have challenges here as well but majority of the people here in Germany is willing to solve and get along with it. This is something that readers from the US should know.

Trust in the People of the United States of America to do the right thing.

What gives me hope in the run for the White House is the fact that most of the US citizens can reflect. They can separate right from wrong. And they will for sure find out pretty sure that behind all those words of Mr. Trump stands a person that can build up a business, but to run a country (esp. the United States of America) it takes a little bit more than just being loud and provocative. I will monitor this run for sure, and this won t be my last post in regards of this campaign.